Forecast of the birth rate and prevalence of the population of subjects of the Russian Federation from the position of assessment of their reproductive potential

Introduction. At present, negative trends in medical and demographic indicators continue to persist in the regions of the Russian Federation, which is seen as a consequence of a decrease in the number of young people due to the demographic “hole” of the late 20^th century and an increase in the incidence of the population, especially adolescence. Therefore, to develop programs for the formation and protection of the population’s reproductive health, it is of no small importance to identify the patterns of morbidity rates in the population to determine the reproductive potential of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Purpose. Study the trend of population morbidity, assessment of the relationship and medium-term predicted values of the birth rate and incidence of the population of certain constituent entities of the Russian Federation to assess their reproductive potential.

Material and methods: statistical materials of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) in the sections “Demography” and “Healthcare”. The analysis of the dynamics of birth rate indicators and morbidity of the population was carried out. Predictive models for fertility and morbidity of the population were built based on one-factor linear regression, where the birth rate was taken as the dependent variable, and the primary morbidity was taken as the independent variable.

Results. The article presents a dynamic analysis of the birth rate, the morbidity rate of the adult, child and adolescent population in four studied territories: the Republic of Tatarstan, Sakha (Yakutia), Dagestan and the Kostroma region. It was revealed that in all regions, there is a decrease in fertility rates, starting from 2014–2015.

Conclusion. Based on regression models, a forecast of the birth rate was compiled, which shows that if the existing trends continue, by 2024 relative to 2018, there will be a decrease in the birth rate in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) by 1.2 per 1,000 population, in the Republic of Dagestan — by 0.6 per 1,000 people, in the Kostroma region — by 0.5 per 1,000 people. However, in the Republic of Tatarstan, the indicator is forecasted to be higher than in 2018 — by 0.6 per 1,000 people.